Amazon extends lead in U.S. in second quarter, JPM says

JPMorgan said U.S. online sales increased 5.3 per cent year over year in the second quarter, broadly stable with the 5.6 per cent growth seen in the first quarter

Amazon extended its lead in the U.S. e-commerce market in the second quarter, according to JPMorgan, which cited the company’s accelerating retail growth and logistics advantages.

In an update to its U.S. e-commerce model, JPMorgan said U.S. online sales increased 5.3 per cent year over year in the second quarter, broadly stable with the 5.6 per cent growth seen in the first quarter.

U.S. e-commerce penetration increased Y/Y for the 10th consecutive quarter in 2Q, up +17bps Y/Y to 21.9 per cent of adjusted retail sales, the analysts wrote.

Amazon’s retail business outpaced the broader market. JPMorgan said Amazon’s global first-party sales growth accelerated to 10 per cent year over year in constant currency, compared with 6 per cent in the prior quarter.

Third-party sales also rose 10 per cent, up from 7 per cent in the first quarter. Growth was “driven by outsized growth in essentials (1/3 of units sold), record-fast SD1D delivery and expansion of the Prime ecosystem,” JPMorgan noted.

The analysts estimate Amazon’s U.S. e-commerce share increased by more than two percentage points from a year earlier to 46.8 per cent in the second quarter.

Looking ahead, JPMorgan projects Amazon’s market share to reach 47.4 per cent in the third quarter and 49.2 per cent in the fourth quarter.

We believe Amazon remains well-positioned as the leader in e-commerce, they wrote, reiterating the stock as their “Best Idea.”

JPMorgan forecasts a slight deceleration in overall U.S. e-commerce growth in the second half of 2025 due to tougher comparisons and potential tariff effects, but expects penetration to keep rising.

We continue to believe U.S. e-commerce penetration of Adj. Retail Sales could rise from 23 per cent in 2024 to 40 per cent+ long term, the bank said.