Bitcoin expected to hit $125,000 by end-2024

The prediction is based on data that show a multimonth bull market consisting of a sharp jump in market value occurs once prices confirm the end of a bear market

Crypto services provider Matrixport, one of the few companies to turn bullish on bitcoin in late 2022, now anticipates the top cryptocurrency to rally to as high as $125k by the end of 2024.

The prediction is based on data that show a multimonth bull market consisting of a sharp jump in market value occurs once prices confirm the end of a bear market, which they do by setting a 12-month high for the first time in at least a year.

That indication started in late May after prices topped $31k, the highest since June last year. Earlier signals took place in August 2012, December 2015, May 2019 and August 2020, with prices rallying in the ensuing years.

On June 22, 2023, bitcoin made a fresh one-year peak, marking the first time in a year. This signal has traditionally suggested the end of bear markets and the beginning of new crypto bull markets, said Markus Thielen, head of research and strategy at Matrixport.

If history is any guide, bitcoin prices could jump by +123 per cent over twelve months and by +310 per cent over eighteen months – based on the average return of the signals triggered in 2015, 2019 and 2020. That would raise prices to $65,539 in twelve months and $125,731 over eighteen months, he said.

Thielen ignored the 2012 signal and the ensuing 5,285 per cent price increase in 2013, terming it an “epic, out-of-proportion” bull market.

Bitcoin traded around $30,700 at one time, according to CoinDesk data.

Matrixport’s view is in line with bitcoin’s tendency to chalk out steep upswings in the 12-18 months following the mining reward halving. The fourth halving, which will cut the new coins paid per block to 3.25 bitcoin from 6.5 bitcoin, is scheduled for March/April 2024.