Quantum computing is judged by many scientific and business ‘futurists’ as the next big technological breakthrough. Unleashing the spectacular level of processing power promised by the next generation of more stable quantum computers is expected to turbo-charge scientific advancement.

A 30-qubit-quantum computer would equal the processing power of a conventional computer that could run teraflops (trillions of floating-point operations per second). Today’s typical desktop computers run at speeds measured in gigaflops (billions of floating-point operations).

Last year, IBM announced its largest quantum computer contains 65 qubits and has promised a 100-qubit quantum computer by 2023.

Today’s quantum computing technology is still (in the context of such an advanced technology) rudimentary and hugely expensive. But applied to specific, narrow use cases has already shown the potential to blow the computing power of even the most powerful traditional ‘super computers’ out of the water.

And the quantum computing field is advancing quickly. From drugs discovery, the development of new synthetic materials to financial engineering, quantum computing is expected to lead to some spectacular scientific breakthroughs over the next decade or two.

Quantum computing advocates are convinced the pace and extent of those breakthroughs will catapult humanity onto a whole new plane of scientific understanding and possibilities. They believe the progress that will be made during the quantum computing era will dwarf even the lightning-fast progress of the past 20 years, enabled by the dawn of first the internet and then cloud computing and machine learning AI.

The promise of the rewards that are expected to be on offer for the nations and companies at the front of the quantum computing race has sparked a global competition. And it’s one the UK is determined to come out of as an international winner.

But is it really a race whose first leg, commercial application, is one we can hope to finish with a podium place?

Quantum computing – what is it? 

In a traditional computer, any and every model from the simplest device like a 1980s digital watch to the most powerful supercomputers in government labs, the technology is based on basic units of information called ‘bits’. A ‘bit’ has two possible values – 1 or 0.

Quantum computers instead run on qubits – the quantum alternative to a bit and one based on the theory of superposition – one thing simultaneously maintaining two states. A commonly offered example of how superposition works is to spin a coin and ask is it “heads or tails”?  The answer is both. The spinning coin is in two different states at the same time. Other quantum theories such as entanglement and interference add additional layers of complexity.

This article on the UseJournal titled The power of quantum computing and how it will change the world offers a reasonably accessible layman’s explanation. But the result is that the qubits that quantum computing is based on represent both a 1 and 0 at the same time. That dual state of qubits exponentially increases their combined computing power.

Source: UseJournal

The problem is that qubits are very unstable. The biggest challenge still facing scientists building quantum computers is still maintaining a number of qubits for enough time for a computation to be completed. It involves keeping the machines at extremely low temperatures and other complications that make developing and maintaining quantum computers in working condition hugely expensive.

But progress is being made and the rewards on offer potentially mindblowing.

Quantum computing in the UK

All of which is why the UK is very much focused on the country establishing itself as the ‘go to place’ for new quantum computing companies to establish themselves and for existing companies keen to invest in quantum computing to base innovative activities in the field.

Which is why the UK’s national quantum technology program (NQTP) was established in 2014. Now two years into its second 5-year phase, the NQTP has attracted a total of £1 billion investment. The government says the funds being made available to the NQTP is allowing the UK to keep up with other early pace-setters – namely the USA and China.

Progress has undeniably been made as a result of the NQTP’s activities. New ground breaking scientific research and papers now regularly come out of the UK and British-based quantum computing start-ups are successfully raising venture capital backing.

But competition is heating up and the UK will have to keep and accelerate the pace of the development of the country’s quantum computing sector if it is to retain its early position at the head of the race.

The EU is some way behind, having only effectively started its own Quantum Technologies Flagship in 2018. Many of the national programmes of EU nations, notably France, have commenced even more recently.

One exception, however, is Germany. The EU’s largest economy has launched a €2 billion ($2.4 billion) funding program for the promotion of quantum technologies in the country. Our Teutonic cousins are some way behind us when it comes to the timeline of investing in quantum computing. But its belated financial commitment has been considerable and Germany has clearly decided it needs to make up lost time.

Switzerland and the Netherlands are also making concerted efforts to establish themselves as hubs for quantum research and start-ups. France too, despite being relatively late to the party.

Commercialisation – how is the UK’s leading position in quantum computing being applied to the real economy?

The UK’s ability to maintain its early lead over European competitors and keep pace with the global powerhouses of the USA and China, will to a large extent rest on the quantum computing sector’s ability to attract private investment. And that in turn relies on private wealth seeing mid-term commercial applications for the nascent technology.

Academic success in research is usually a forerunner of commercialisation and an area in which the UK is strong. Birmingham’s Quantum Sensing Hub has made significant progress in attempts to develop new kinds of quantum-based magnetic sensors that could in future be used to help diagnose brain and heart conditions.

The Quantum Metrology Institute is a world-leader in the development of quantum atomic clocks and there are an estimated 160 different research groups and universities across the UK working on everything from the design of specialist algorithms to run on quantum computers to new verification models.

The focus of the NQTP’s second 5-year phase is on bringing quantum theory and developing technology out of the lab and into commercialisation. Initiatives such as a national quantum computing centre, established to facilitate academics working alongside commercial partners, have been launched to that end.

Government efforts are already bearing fruit in the form of a UK quantum computing start-up scene that is relatively thriving. Up to 204 quantum computing-based businesses have so far been registered in the UK. And there have been examples of successful fundraising with start-ups including Cambridge Quantum Computing and Riverlane raising considerable sums through private venture capital financing.

But there have also been setbacks. In 2019, PsiQ, a highly promising quantum computing start-up working on the development of a commercial quantum computer and started at the University of Bristol decamped to Silicon Valley.

The move was reportedly motivated by better access to capital in the USA compared to the UK or Europe. The USA has a stronger record of appreciating and investing in cutting edge technologies still some way from commercial application. PsiQ’s move has been justified by the fact it has since raised £156 million ($215 million) in VC backing.

Simon King, a partner at British VC firm Octopus Ventures, believes UK investors need to be ready to generously fund promising quantum computing start-ups if a brain drain to the USA is to be avoided. He is quoted by technology media ZDnet.com as commenting:

“The US remains the biggest competitor, with a big concentration of universities and academics and the pedigree and culture of commercializing university research. Things are definitely moving in the right direction, but the UK and Europe still lag behind the US, where there is a deeper pool of capital and there are more investors willing to invest in game-changing, but long-term technology like quantum.” 

There’s little data available on Chinese investment in the commercialisation of quantum computing technology in the country. But with the emerging economic superpower making no secret of its ambitions to be at the front of the race, it can be presumed to be considerable.

The UK had the foresight to position itself well in the early stages of the race to develop and commercialise quantum computing knowhow and technology. But the hardest part of the task comes now – maintaining that position through the velocity of progress from here on in.

The government has done its bit early on but will have to now do much more. And private British investment capital will also have to step up to the plate and show ambition if the domestic sector is to keep up with the deep pockets of the biggest technology companies, VC and private equity firms in the USA.

Not to mention China, a nation determined to be a technology innovator, not replicator, over the next stage of its evolution as a, if not the, global superpower.