Trump Media shares jump after reversal in election odds

The stock soared 4.8% to end at $25.28, up 53% from last Friday’s closing price

Shares of Trump Media and Technology Group, the parent company of Truth Social, have jumped over the past week as betting markets started tilting toward former President Donald Trump.

The stock soared 4.8% to end at $25.28, up 53% from last Friday’s closing price.

That coincided with a broad improvement in Trump’s odds of victory on top betting sites. For instance, Vice President Kamala Harris was in the lead last weekend on PredictIt, then was tied by Wednesday, and was overtaken by Trump the following day.

Similarly, Harris had a slight edge on October 4 on Polymarket, but lost it over the weekend, with Trump widening his lead throughout the following week. As of now, it shows 55% for Trump and 44.7% for Harris.

And on Kalshi, Harris and Trump were largely neck and neck, but Trump began pulling ahead by midweek and now leads 53% versus 47%.

Meanwhile, data scientist Thomas Miller, a professor at Northwestern University, also told Fortune’s Shawn Tully on Thursday that Trump’s odds surged over the past week, giving him a two-vote Electoral College lead.

He maintains that his model, which is guided by political betting data, is a much better forecaster than following the individual polls.

While nationwide opinion polls have not seen a dramatic reversal, with Harris clinging to a narrow lead, polls in the key swing states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania show her advantage shrinking while Trump has held on to leads in other battlegrounds such as Georgia and North Carolina.

Trump Media shares have already been on a wild ride this year, acting like a barometer of Trump’s election prospects. The stock surged following Trump’s first debate with President Joe Biden in June and again after Trump survived an assassination attempt in July.